Guest post by Sean Key
Introduction
Global birth rates are falling and populations are aging. The global fertility rate has dropped from nearly five children per woman in the 1950s to about 2.3 in 2023 (Our World in Data), with many nations now well below replacement. The United Nations projects that by 2050 the global fertility rate will be around 2.1 and 1.8 by 2100 (UN World Population Prospects 2024). At the same time, life expectancy continues to rise, increasing dependency ratios. For commercial space and deep technology, this is not an abstract concern—it is a structural factor that must be priced. Within the Tier Method™, these demographic forces are already embedded across the Technology, Environment, Regulation, and Market layers.
The Labor Market Squeeze
In the Technology factor, demographic decline shows up as talent scarcity. Aerospace and defense already face shortages of propulsion engineers, systems integrators, and mission operators. The average age at NASA is 48, with nearly a quarter eligible for retirement (NASA Inspector General Report). At the same time, the U.S. space workforce grew by 3.8% in 2022, adding over 40,000 jobs (Space Foundation 2023 Report), underscoring the mismatch between demand and supply. Firms that capture tacit knowledge early and create structured apprenticeship programs can offset these risks.
Fiscal and Policy Pressures
Under Environment and Regulation, demographic trends increase fiscal stress. Aging societies require higher pension and healthcare spending, crowding out discretionary budgets like space exploration. The IMF notes that falling fertility and rising life expectancy are “demographic headwinds” that could shave up to 1% off annual GDP growth in developed economies (IMF Finance & Development, 2025). Countries that maintain fiscal flexibility or implement immigration-friendly policies can hold down these premiums, while restrictive jurisdictions see risk rise.
Market Demand Shifts
The Market factor reflects the flip side of demographic decline: labor scarcity raises the value of automation, robotics, and biotech. For example, South Korea’s total fertility rate has collapsed to 0.8 births per woman (World Bank), yet the country has become a global leader in robotics adoption. In space, this dynamic increases the payoff of autonomous launch operations, robotic satellite servicing, and AI-driven mission design. In deep tech, it boosts demand for exoskeletons, nanomaterials, and medtech that extend healthy working years.
Geographic Divergence
Demographic patterns are uneven. Africa is projected to contribute more than half of global population growth by 2050 (UN Population Division). In contrast, Europe and East Asia are already shrinking. Companies that relocate manufacturing, testing, and even R&D hubs to young regions lower their environmental premiums, while those dependent on aging labor pools will face rising costs. Regulatory flexibility also matters: in the United States, 43% of doctorate-level scientists and engineers are foreign-born (National Science Foundation, 2023 Science & Engineering Indicators)—making immigration policy a decisive factor in talent availability.
Conclusion: Built Into the Framework
Declining fertility and rising life expectancy are not external shocks; they are structural realities already captured in the Tier Method™. They raise Technology premiums through workforce risk, alter Environmentand Regulation through fiscal and immigration dynamics, and create Market opportunities in automation and health.
As demographic decline accelerates, one possible next step is to formalize its tracking through a monitoring framework—perhaps a dashboard that integrates fertility, life expectancy, and workforce indicators into the Tier overlays. Such a tool would allow industry leaders and investors to benchmark more precisely and turn demographic headwinds into foresight.
Sean Key is the CEO of Better Futures, Inc., the producer of “The Unknown Quantity” podcast